Internal Assessment
What Truly happened to Pioneering Aviatrice Amelia Earhart?
Word count: 2193
Section A: Identification and Evaluation of Sources
This investigation aims to explore the question, Which theory surrounding the disappearance of Amelia Earhart is most probable? The time period of relevance will be from 1937, when Amelia began flying, through 2000, 63 years after the incident, allowing the sources to reflect a moderately developed public perception.
Amelia Earhart: The Mystery Solved By Elgen and Marie K. Long, 1999
Retaining significant value within its origin, as the author Elgen M. Long was a retired aviator, this secondary source is based on a compilation of primary evidence and expertise. The purpose of this source holds significant value, as it utilises extensive research by Long to support a theory in which Amelia Crashed and Sunk near Howland island. Congruently, the content holds value in the same manner, as it decodes primary documents from Earhart, allowing their evaluation of her situation to develop through educated estimates. One limitation is the nature of the source, with its secondary origin and lack of physical evidence (i.e. pieces of her Electra found in water). Furthermore, with its main focus lying on one theory, it lacks evaluation of other theories and their inaccuracies, in order to further support their claims. Altogether, Long poured over 25 years into his research, collecting documentation for the book and assessing their findings, heightening its relevance and purpose within this study.
Finding Amelia: The True Story of the Earhart Disappearance By Ric Gillespie, 2009
This document contains value within its origin, as it is from Ric Gillespie, the executive director of The International Group for Historic Aircraft Recovery (TIGHAR) and retired aviation safety expert, both giving him extensive knowledge within the workings of aviation. It is a secondary source; however, Gillespie’s association with TIGHAR allows primary information from their personal recovery units involved in the modern search for Earhart, enriching the basis for his claims. Equally important is its purpose, valued as it aims to present a differing theory to that of Long’s, one in which Amelia and Fred crash landed on a nearby island, Nikumaroro, and were stranded. Moreover, the content Gillespie provides is based on detailed accounts from TIGHAR’s expeditions to Nikumaroro island, documenting artefacts, environmental conditions, and historical records, which all support Gillespie’s hypothesis. However, the purpose is limited due to its evaluation of only one hypothesis, disregarding varied viewpoints. Moreover, the content is limited by its emphasis on expeditions, rather than analysis of primary sources.
Section B: Investigation
Remarked as the first woman to span sea alone, Amelia Earhart became a trailblazer for women in aviation during the mid-20th century. In an attempt to set a world record, Earhart planned a world-wide flight. However, this would be her final trip, as whilst flying the last stretch of her route over Howland island, contact with Earhart was lost. Her unforeseen disappearance dominated the media, as the world scrambled for answers. Myths threw the case out of proportion, with theories fantasising her faking a disappearance to escape the public eye and others, her assassination by Japanese forces. Modernly, two prevalent theories have attempted to examine the disappearance: the Crash and Sink and Castaway.
Crash and Sink
Although there are various theories surrounding Amelia’s disappearance, all point to one certainty: it began with a crash. Many think past such conditions and assume she and Noonan landed elsewhere, although sources such as the 1999 book Amelia Earhart: The Mystery Solved point otherwise. The theory hypothesises Amelia and Fred’s 10 a.m. departure at Lae, New Guinea, is accompanied with a brutal windstorm, as they fly north towards Howland island. The subsequent cloudy skies cause Noonan to redirect them various times, as he scrambles to find their current orientation through celestial navigation. In turn, the majority of their fuel has depleted, leaving them with a limited supply once they navigate to the 157-337 line (the navigational path which Earhart used to locate Howland island). Unable to locate Howland in time, Earhart crash lands into the ocean on the 157-337 line, where the weight of the Electra swiftly submerges the plane with them inside.
Long’s theory seems reductionist compared to the rest, yet, similar to their critics, it recites a concise timeline through radio transmissions, their connection strength, and content. This theory, centralising around Amelia’s radio messages, confirms seven transmissions were sent within their final flight, arguing that they hold evidence to Amelia’s final position being within the oceanic proximity of Howland island.
Connection strength enhances Elgen’s certainty, as he maps out the signal strengths from these final transmissions. Long, examining each of the seven messages, found that all of the radio recordings, taken from 7:42-8:43 a.m., July 3, were received by Amelia’s team at a signal strength of 3. Within aviation, the range at which a radio signal can be received is on a scale of 1-5. Earhart’s trip was supervised by the coast guard cutter, Itasca, with it being stationed at Howland island during her final stretch. The cutter provided her and Noonan with receiving communications, sending them smoke signals and bearings. In theory, her connection status to the Itasca would strengthen over time during this stretch of her trip, with her connection rate beginning much lower, as she was stationed in Lae, and the Itasca, at Howland. This proved true, as during the final hours of her flight, the Itasca collected the highest rate of connectivity present, 5. Elgen argues this validates his theory, as it confirmed that the Electra was within the vicinity of Howland island, with this connection strength only feasible within a 54-mile radius of the Itasca.
Long extends the theory, adding that the content of the radio signals provide further evidence. Around 7:42 a.m., Earhart reports that she should be nearing Howland, adding an alarming remark, [we] cannot see you, but gas is running low. This report adds intensity to the situation, as Earhart knows her fuel is low, a substantial part of Elgen’s theory. Sixteen minutes later, at 7:58 a.m., Earhart requests for homing signals, so she can take a bearing. Long notes her frantic searching for Howland through this and their next transmission at 8:43 a.m. This radio report marks their search on the 157-337 line of position. She additionally asked them to switch frequency to 6210 kcs, where she would repeat her message. This transmission would be her last, providing the theory with an estimated location of the crash, somewhere along the 157-337 line, and also Long’s idea in which Earhart was panicking, as she could not navigate Howland and feared she had lost connection with the Itasca. Additionally, it being the final radio transmission sent from Earhart and Noonan supports the theory’s ending: an abrupt crash without any final warnings.
Overall, Long’s theory is supported through primary sources, highlighting credibility, whilst additionally interpreting the evidence we have from the original case.
Castaway
On a contrasting note, however, sources such as Gillespie’s 2006 book Finding Amelia: The True Story of the Earhart Disappearance theorise that Amelia found a safe haven after crashing. The theory goes as follows: Amelia and Fred departed from Lae, New Guinea, around 10 a.m. With their flight towards Howland island documented to have lasted up to 20 hours, they would reach Howland early the next morning. Moreover, the severe weather expected an overcast, as well as south-east wind patterns. Gillespie argues these factors would cause Earhart and Noonan to arrive south of Howland, as the wind forced them; cloud cover would limit celestial navigation to few breaks in the clouds, and Noonan would be able to calculate their arrival on line 157-337. They then scour the 157-337 line north and south, seeking Howland, until they ran out of gas, forcing them to land near another island (Nikumaroro), rather than crash.
Gillespie and his team narrowed down Earhart’s possible safe haven to be that of Nikumaroro island through their 12 separate searches conducted during the past 35 years. Unlike Long, Gillespie provides a secondary foundation for his theory, utilising promising evidence from radio transcripts and artefacts collected near Nikumaroro island.
Radio transcripts provided in the Crash and Sink theory ended their timeline at 8:43 a.m., dismissing any further possibilities of distress calls proceeding early July 3rd, an error Gillespie intensely researched for TIGHAR expeditions, finding that out of the 120 radio transcripts captured around the Phoenix islands around July 2nd-7th, he deemed 57 credible. One specific message stands out within his interpretation of the case, labelled the 281 message. This message, one of the dozens claimed invalid by the prior theory, picks up morse code from Earhart’s Electra. Initially, it is easy to question why Earhart and Noonan did not provide any explicit names on their location, and even if they were unsure which island they were on, Noonan could have easily used his instruments. However, prior to their arrival in Lae, Noonan’s chronometer had been reportedly broken; therefore, the only accurate calculation he could produce was that of a latitudinal estimation, using his octant and almanac. Decoding the message, TIGHAR came to the astounding conclusion that 281 is the same amount of nautical miles Nikumaroro island is away from the equator; furthermore, it is the only standpoint between the central Pacific where one can stand that exact distance away from the equator, both north and south. Although it is easy for sceptics to argue that this transmission was nothing short of a hoax by someone wishing to throw off the case or collect their 15 seconds of fame, Gillespie notes the constraints pranksters would have faced doing so: 1. They would need to acquire Earhart’s transmission frequency and call sign, both only known to her navigational team, 2. They would also have known Earhart’s inability to code morse fluently, making miscellaneous mistakes similar to that of her own, 3. They could have guessed any number to implement a marker, and yet somehow they assumed the exact distance from Nikumaroro to the equator. All factors which would be unfathomable to simply guess. This message represents the inaccuracies of the prior theory, dispelling any possible information collected after the night of the 2nd, providing a solid lead to the castaway theory.
Gillespie continues to document this standpoint through TIGHAR’s personal archives of expeditionary data on Nikumaroro island. Within their active years, TIGHAR visited Nikumaroro countless times, scanning the reef nearby and inspecting the land. TIGHAR’s artefact search on the land was abundant with possibilities. Upon their visit to Nikumaroro in May of 2008, Gillespie noted a fragment from that of a Jack Knife, an essential Earhart had been noted to keep on her aeroplane during previous flights. Although this one differed from the company Earhart had previously used, it nevertheless heightened the value of TIGHAR’s claims, especially as remnants of harvested clams accompanied its discovery site. Although one can argue that the knife belonged to a prior inhabitant, TIGHAR’s research found through interviews that it was not a tool any of the Pacific islander tribes and navy members, the only other visitors of the island, documented bringing with them. However, findings of scraps which resemble that of the Electra’s outer shell, such as Artefact 2-2-V-1, a sheet of aluminium alloy, compromise this theory. Artefact 2-2-V-1, claimed by Gillespie to be part of Earhart’s navigation window covering, underwent forensic examination. The findings outlined that the artefact’s chemical make-up was closer to that of a later model than Earhart’s Electra, finding larger quantities of Nickel and Zinc, a structural alteration within the early 1940s. Thus, this evidence was noted by Gillespie as invalid.
Overall, Gillespie’s interpretation brings an interesting theory of Earhart and Noonan’s situation; however, the evidence provided is not as concrete as Long’s. This is due to the secondary nature of their artefacts, being subject to cross-contamination from other visitors of the island, further demonstrated through the results of forensic analysts.
Section C: Reflection
Initially, Amelia’s disappearance was undoubtedly due to a crash, an event both theories agree on, although, once delving into the story, I believe Long’s interpretation to be the best fit towards the research question. This conclusion was undoubtedly influenced through the apparent limitations faced by Gillespie and TIGHAR whilst researching the case. Although Gillespie incorporated new interpretations of the primary documents, with his re-evaluation of radio transcripts once thought insignificant, his attempts at secondary, artefactual evidence collection from Nikumaroro island seemed to be insufficient. The disappearance of Earhart predates nearly five decades before TIGHAR’s earliest exhibition; therefore, collection of new data relevant to the scenario seems inconceivable. The hypotheses surrounding the jack-knife and Artefact 2-2-V-1 further confirm this factual uncertainty. This scenario impacts all historians researching a period or event in which they themselves were not present, limiting the validity of the subsequent secondary sources.
Furthermore, having to narrow down this historical investigation to two sources, I faced first-hand the selection process and subsequent biases within researching and documenting my findings. I selected two theories sourced from those whose work has closely intertwined with aviation, assuming their degree of professionalism within aviation analytics would aid my verdict. This selection disregarded theories I, the historian, found impractical; theories of Amelia Earhart being captured by Japanese forces as a prisoner and faking her death to escape fame seemed simply too complex and implausible to be taken into account. I recognised this bias through the investigation, as I became more aware of the choices historians face when researching, judging ethicality and factuality along with applicability.
Bibliography
Gillespie, Ric, and Richard E. Gillespie. Finding Amelia: The True Story of the Earhart Disappearance. Naval Institute Press, 2009.
Long, Elgen M., and Marie K. Long. Amelia Earhart: The Mystery Solved. Simon & Schuster, 1999.
Michals, Debra. Amelia Earhart. National Women’s History Museum, https://www.womenshistory.org/education-resources/biographies/amelia-earhart. Accessed 22 Sept. 2024.
Ray, Michael. Amelia Earhart | Biography, Childhood, Disappearance & Facts. Britannica, 16 Sept. 2024, https://www.britannica.com/biography/Amelia-Earhart. Accessed 22 Sept. 2024.
Drabkin, R. The Conspiracy Theory That Amelia Earhart Was Killed by Japanese Soldiers. The Diplomat, 2 Mar. 2024, https://thediplomat.com/2024/03/the-conspiracy-theory-that-amelia-earhart-was-killed-by-japanese-soldiers/.
Waxman, Olivia B. Amelia Earhart Disappearance and Death: What Really Happened. Time, 4 Jan. 2019, https://time.com/5486999/amelia-earhart-disappearance-theories/. Accessed 22 Sept. 2024.
Holbrook, F. X. Amelia Earhart’s Final Flight | Proceedings - February 1971 Vol. 97/2/816. U.S. Naval Institute, 1 Jan. 1971, https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/1971/february/amelia-earharts-final-flight. Accessed 12 Oct. 2024.
Laxton, P. The Earhart Project. TIGHAR, 6 Sept. 2006, https://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Archives/Archivessubject.html. Accessed 10 Oct. 2024.
Cosmic Significance. TIGHAR, Sept. 1993, https://tighar.org/Publications/TTracks/1993Vol_9/Markings.pdf.
TIGHAR. Artefact 2-8-S-5. TIGHAR, May 2008, https://tighar.org/Publications/TTracks/2008Vol_24/2_8_S_5.pdf.
Report of Findings on Artefact 2-2-V-1 by Lehigh Testing Laboratories. Newcastle, DE, https://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Archives/Research/Bulletins/75_Findings2-2-V-1/R-48-20TIGHARReport.pdf. Accessed 12 Oct. 2024.
